8 Ways Hamilton Could Still Win The F1 2016 Championship

1. Rosberg retires from every race/doesn't start

Yeah, this one seems unlikely. But F1 is unpredictable and things can change quickly. If Nico Rosberg retires from the remaining four races – maybe due to incidents, reliability woes or injury (we absolutely do not wish this on any driver, of course) – all Lewis Hamilton needs to do is finish fifth or above each time to win.

2. Most likely?

Here’s what is probably the most likely scenario. Mercedes has been pretty good in the reliability stakes, but either driver could register a DNF. If Rosberg retires from the next race and finishes second in the next two, with Hamilton winning all three, we’ll see Rosberg on 349 and Hamilton on 355 points with one race left. Hamilton will have to win the race to take the title, assuming Rosberg doesn’t place any lower than second. If Rosberg wins and Hamilton is second, he’ll lose by one point.

3. Hamilton wins them all

Hamilton has quite a fight on his hands, after a great run of races from Rosberg. If things go completely to plan for the British driver and he wins all four races, he will take the title if Rosberg scores two second place finishes and two thirds.

4. Top two positions filled

This is probably unlikely, but you never know. Let’s say Red Bull or Ferrari share the top two positions for the rest of the season, what would happen then? If Hamilton finishes third in each of the four races, he will win the title but only if Rosberg finishes sixth or below in all of them. As obvious as it sounds, he needs a good few positions between him and Rosberg to keep things rolling.

5. One win each

It’s likely that Rosberg and Hamilton could take one victory and one second place each in the next two races, with the gap still at 33 points. With two to go, Hamilton will have to win both and Rosberg score just seven points in two races to win it (a seventh and a 10th). A tough task!

6. First place covered

Let’s say Red Bull or Ferrari take the wins in the final four races. If Hamilton finishes second in the remaining races and Rosberg scores below 39 points (three fifths and a sixth, for example) he’ll win.

7. Rosberg struggling

Who knows, Rosberg could well hit a rough patch. Let’s say he finishes fifth in all of the remaining races (unlikely, given the pace of the Mercedes), what will Hamilton need to do to win? He’d need at least one win, two second places and a third to score more (if it’s two thirds, he’ll lose as the points will be tied and Rosberg will have more wins).

8. Messy weekend

F1 drivers get a race ban if they pass 12 superlicense points. Hamilton and Rosberg both have zero, but a particularly messy/disastrous two weekends of non-scoring for either and then a race ban for picking up 12 penalty points would twist the title race up.

Let’s say that happens to Rosberg, and Hamilton wins once and scores a second and third. The final race will see Rosberg on 313 points and Hamilton on 338. If Rosberg turns it around and wins the last race in Abu Dhabi, Hamilton’ll need to score at least one point. If not, it’ll be a tie and Rosberg will win on the number of first places.

These are all hypothetical and probably not very likely, but hopefully they make sense. It’s worth looking at the extremes F1 could go through because you never really know. The maths could get very complicated if both drivers suffer some bad luck, that’s for sure. But whoever wins, it’ll be deserved as both have driven brilliantly so far.